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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • …that is, this isn’t yet the end of the AI bubble.

    The “bubble” in AI is predicated on proprietary software that’s been oversold and underdelivered.

    If I can outrun OpenAI’s super secret algorithm with 1/100th the physical resources, the $13B Microsoft handed Sam Altman’s company starts looking like burned capital.

    And the way this blows up the reputation of AI hype-artists makes it harder for investors to be induced to send US firms money. Why not contract with Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence directly, rather than ask OpenAI to adopt a model that’s better than anything they’ve produced to date?


  • Hm even with DeepSeek being more efficient, wouldn’t that just mean the rich corps throw the same amount of hardware at it to achieve a better result?

    Only up to the point where the AI models yield value (which is already heavily speculative). If nothing else, DeepSeek makes Altman’s plan for $1T in new data-centers look like overkill.

    The revelation that you can get 100x gains by optimizing your code rather than throwing endless compute at your model means the value of graphics cards goes down relative to the value of PhD-tier developers. Why burn through a hundred warehouses full of cards to do what a university mathematics department can deliver in half the time?