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Cake day: August 24th, 2023

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  • Most opinions on this topic are very much so based on vibes rather than real experience,

    Very much so. You can tell from the way certain people talk about it that they’ve never actually used it in any meaningful way.

    I don’t think LLM’s will be doing all the programming in a few years. They do keep getting better, but hallucinations are baked into how the system is designed, and unless they can solve that, it does feel like they are starting to reach a plateau. If they can solve it, I don’t think it would be a token based LLM as we know it today either, it would be a wholly other thing that we would need to reassess.

    Also, some jobs won’t want to use it for fear of copyright infringement issues, others won’t want to use it as a mean to stay pure. Did you see any of the Claire Obscure Expedition 33 stuff over 1 AI generated placeholder texture that was accidentally left in the game and promptly removed? They’ve now said they just won’t use AI at all so they can remain pure.

    I think learning to program is still a really good option even if it might be a little harder in the near future to get a job than before. In an ideal situation, hopefully you’ve found something you want to build for yourself so you can just keep learning off of that while benefiting from it, I find that usually works better motivation wise than building something random you don’t have an attachment to.

    That also gives you a project to talk about in interviews, where you can talk about how you built it, what decisions you made while building it, problems you encountered, how you tackled those problems, the steps to make it publicly available etc etc.

    Just don’t be too reliant on AI generated code while learning, or like I said with the website it helped me make, I didn’t learn much. You want to build your skills knowing how to use it as a tool, but not needing to use it at all.


  • So I’m developer, I do mobile apps, and I do use Claude/GPT.

    I could be wrong, but I don’t foresee any imminent collapse of developer jobs, but it does have its uses. I think if anything it’ll be fewer lower end positions, but if you don’t hire and teach new devs, that’s going to have repercussions down the road.

    I needed to make a webpage for example, and I’m not a webdev, and it helped me create a static landing webpage. I can tell that the webpage code is pretty shitty, but it does work for it’s purposes. This either replaced a significant amount of time learning how to do it, or replaced me hiring a contractor to do it. But I also am not really any better off at writing a webpage if I needed to make a 2nd one having used it, as I didn’t lean much in the process.

    But setting it all up also did have me have to work on the infrastructure behind it. The AI was able to help guide me through that as well, but it did less of it. That I did learn, and would be able to leverage that for future work.

    When it comes to my actual mobile work, I don’t like asking it do anything substantial as the quality is usually pretty low. I might ask it to build a skeleton of something that I can fill out, I’ll often ask it’s opinions on a small piece of code I wrote and look for a better way to write it, and in that case it has helped me learn new things. I’ll also talk to it about planning something out and getting some insights on the topic before I write any code.

    It gives almost as many wrong/flawed answers as right answers if there’s even a tiny bit of complexity, so you need to know how to sift through the crap which you won’t know if you aren’t a developer. It will tell you APIs exist that don’t. It will recommend APIs that were deprecated years ago. The list goes on and on and on. This also happened while I was making the webpage, so my developer skills were still required to get to the end product I wanted.

    I can’t see how it will replace a sizeable chunk of developers yet, but I think if used properly, it could enhance existing devs and lead to fewer hires needed.

    When I hear things like 30% of Microsoft code is now written by AI, it makes sense why shit is breaking all the time and quality is going down. They’re forcing it to do what it can’t do yet.









  • This is how it generally behaves, but they are capable of taking direct control in more difficult situations. It’s only very slow maneurvers though, it’s not like they would be driving it down the street. They could move it off the road onto the shoulder though if needed.

    Edit: I am trying to find the source, but having problems. It was only ever mentioned in 1 official waymo document that I’ve seen that it was technically possible. My guess is they say their remote helpers can’t / don’t do it because they truly can’t, and it’s some highly restricted type of person who can, who isn’t classified like these other employees. The whole misleading but technical true kinda speak. I’ll keep looking though because I was really surprised to see them admit it when I saw it in an official document.

    Found it

    https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/divisions/consumer-protection-and-enforcement-division/documents/tlab/av-programs/tcp0038152a-waymo-al-0003_a1b.pdf

    In very limited circumstances such as to facilitate movement of the AV out of a freeway lane onto an adjacent shoulder, if possible, our Event Response agents are able to remotely move the Waymo AV under strict parameters, including at a very low speed over a very short distance.

    Looks like I was right as well on terminology, it’s not the remote operators that can do it, it’s the “Event Response” team that can.

    As far as I know this is the only official acknowledgement it’s possible. Everywhere else they say it isn’t, and this is a footnote in that document.



  • Well it’s one thing if you don’t want to trust information that comes out on something like Reuters or when Glenn Shotwell said it was entering into profitability, but it’s another to continue to claim something otherwise like Starlink isn’t sustainable and is burning VC money.

    At this point, it would be best to either stay out of the conversation, or state something more like an opinion than come across as factual.

    Edit: Just as an example in the future you could say something like, “I don’t think Starlink would be sustainable without the current government Starlink contracts”. I don’t believe we have any information that would tell us if that’s the case one way or another yet and could be true. Or "I don’t trust the information available, so I don’t think its actually sustainable or profitable’

    Edit: Just to clarify sorry for extra edits - we do know for sure that Starlink is their largest revenue source though, and that retail / business customers make up the majority of their customers. I wouldn’t doubt that the government starlink contracts have much better margins though and can skew profitability into uncertainty without them.