I would assume the real surges would be in bluesky and threads. Out of the frying pan and into the other frying pan.
People don’t really understand Mastodon and federation (nor do I blame them for that), but those details are now much, much less in your face than they were when Elon bought Twitter. Mastodon’s reliability and usefulness has also improved a lot since Elon bought Twitter. Nothing else works quite like sending a few hundred thousand people your way to stress test your product (and some of them are even nice enough to give money, too!)
Another article I read theorized that Threads launching might have increased the awareness of ActivityPub and softened peoples resistance to the “Mastodon is too hard, not worth trying to figure out” messaging in the media. Who knows though, and there’s probably not a single answer anyway.
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